Top promising industries and companies. Only 6 Russian

A hundred of the most promising companies in developing countries are prepared to become transnational and change the existing order in the economy, only 6 Russian, and all of them raw - Rusal, Norilsk Nickel, Severstal, Lukoil, Gazprom and Evraz . But our company's most aggressive: for 2000-2010, 22% of all cross-border mergers, acquisitions accounted for one hundred Russian sixes.


Clean tech is the most promising industrie raised $7.8B in VC funding in 2010.
Stats for the year show smaller amounts per deal, but record-high number of deals.

The siren song to CEO’s who aren’t technical

CEO’s face the “rewrite” problem at least once in their tenure. If they’re an operating exec brought in to replace a founding technical CEO, then it looks like an easy decision – just listen to your engineering VP compare the schedule for a rewrite (short) against the schedule of adapting the old code to the new purpose (long.) In reality this is a fools choice. The engineering team may know the difficulty and problems adapting the old code, but has no idea what difficulties and problems it will face writing a new code base.

A CEO who had lived through a debacle of a rewrite or understood the complexity of the code would know that with the original engineering team no longer there, the odds of making the old mistakes over again are high. Add to that introducing new mistakes that weren’t there the first time, Murphy’s law says that unbridled optimism will likely turn the 1-year rewrite into a multi-year project.

My observation was that the CEO and VP of Engineering were confusing cause and effect. The customers aren’t asking for new code. They are asking for new features and platforms –now. Customers couldn’t care less whether it was delivered via spaghetti code, alien spacecraft or a completely new product. While the code rewrite is going on, competitors who aren’t enamored with architectural purity will be adding features, platforms, customers and market share. The difference between being able to add them now versus a year or more in the future might be the difference between growing revenue and going out of business.

Who wants to work on the old product

Perhaps the most dangerous side-effect of embarking on a code rewrite is that the decision condemns the old code before a viable alternative exists. Who is going to want to work on the old code with all its problems when the VP Engineering and CEO have declared the new code to be the future of the company? The old code is as good as dead the moment management introduces the word “rewrite.” As a consequence, the CEO has no fallback. If the VP Engineering’s schedule ends up taking four years instead of one year, there is no way to make incremental progress on the new features during that time.Dealmakers expect merger and acquisition activity to pick up in the first six months of 2010, with manufacturing, health care and financial services positioned to benefit most in the near term, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

The Association for Corporate Growth (ACG) and Thomson Reuters compile a twice yearly survey of investment bankers, private equity professionals, lawyers and other dealmakers.

Around 82 percent of the 921 people surveyed believed merger activity will increase over the next 6 months. That is up from 56 percent six months ago.

Forty percent of those surveyed believe a quarter to half of the deals in that period would be distressed deals, while about 52 percent thought that less than a quarter of those deals would involve distressed assets.

The biggest expected obstacle to deals in the first half of 2010 is expected to be sellers who won't sell at current multiples, according to 37 percent of survey respondents. About 29 percent of those surveyed were more worried about the credit crunch. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B750820091208



В сотне наиболее перспективных компаний из развивающихся стран, готовых стать транснациональными и изменить сложившийся в экономике порядок, всего 6 российских, причем все они сырьевые – «Русал», «Норникель», «Северсталь», «Лукойл», «Газпром» и «Евраз». Зато наши компании самые агрессивные: за 2000–2010 годы 22% всех трансграничных слияний-поглощений в сотне пришлось на долю российской шестерки.
Давос: после кризиса россияне обеднеют, а китайцы разбогатеют

Political Marketing

"Political Marketing" by E. Mushinsky in 2008 it was predicted that enough of the revolution in

http://hodorkovski.blogspot.com/2011/01/why-russia-will-repeat-fate-of-tunisia.html

Цепная реакция революций: Тунис, сегодня Египет и Албания
В книге "Политический маркетинг" Э. Мушинского еще в 2008 году было предсказано, что достаточно революции в одной стране, как психический вирус недовольства выльется в подобные события в странах со сходными условиями.

IT-convergence - added value created by the Internet

In addition about IT-convergence  http://znacomstva.blogspot.com/2011/01/eduprener-entrepreneur-of-education.html

concrete example of how IT-related industries absorb technology, in our case - distance education "Any added value created by the Internet refers to the distribution and personalization," - said Jose Ferreira, CEO and founder of the service Knewton - site of the breakthrough last year. "So far, all had a stake in the distribution, we have placed on personalization," - says Ferreira. The education system seems devouring monster budgets ineffective only to the people of the past. People from the future to see it something like an oil well.

 At the Technology Section of the International Economic Forum in Davos 

Knewton noted in the category "Technology Pioneers". Such recognition awarded Google, Mozilla, and Twitter. "Any added value created by the Internet refers to the distribution and personalization," - said Jose Ferreira, CEO and founder of the service Knewton

"So far, all had a stake in the distribution, we have placed on personalization," - says Ferreira.

The best investment idea 2012

The best investment opportunities nature gives: weakening Earth's magnetic field would lead to the emergence of new needs, the vital needs!

Experts are already saying that the current shift of the poles - not just their traditional walk. It is quite possible, they begin to shift its position. The point is familiar to the Earth. The only question is speed. Previously it was thought that it would take at least several hundred years (at current speed - three hundred years). But recent studies by Scott Boag and Jonathan Glenn of the U.S. Geological Survey have found evidence that a change of polarity of the Earth's magnetic field can occur very quickly, in about four to five years.

During this period the first time it will weaken, thereby reducing the protection from cosmic radiation. And then, in the second half of the term, to grow, until finally restored. The fact of the weakening of the magnetic field is diagnosed is already about a hundred years. During this time Earth's magnetic field has weakened by more than 10%, and the process continues, and with increasing speed.

This does not mean that "fall through the Earth from its axis." Look, the sun reverses polarity every 22 years. On Earth, too, there were periods when for three million years, was held back a dozen shifts. True, sometimes millions of years, nothing happened. Life is not interrupted by a planetary scale, but it looks kind of life ...

Reducing the magnetic field will substitute the planet under the flux of cosmic rays. It can cause mass death of plants and animals, as well as massive clouds and, consequently, a sharp cold snap. That is the atmosphere in the end to protect us from radiation, but at the cost of global cooling.

However, it is possible that the torture of the Earth by cosmic rays and the frost will not be so long. U.S. scientists studying ancient lava fields in Nevada, found that 15 million years ago, the shift of the poles was remarkably rapid: the pole was shifted at a rate of about 1 degree a week. It promises a complete inversion of the three and a half years. Ice Age occur will not have time, but especially do not need to fly: airports will be closed to the endless inventory of its navigation services.

Rely on electronics while also not worth it. The weakening of the magnetic field has already diagnosed the space stations. In case of further development of this process the magnetic zone of the planet will disappear, and the vast majority of our companions simply stop working. There will be no short-wave radio, the Internet will only have a wired, mobile phones will disappear.

http://newstodaynews.com/scott-bogue-and-jonathan-glen-reveal-that-two-poles-of-earth-north-and-south-shifting-each-other-takes-thousands-of-years-to-complete/14989

Venture capitalists in Central Europe

Drivers behind venture

Most venture capital investors are international firms that have started looking at the region, and there are also local managers such as 3TS, Eagle Ventures, MCI and Poteza.

In addition to a constant stream of people coming back from the West, it has recently also been observed that more talented people wish to stay in their home countries, which will also help increase the pool of qualified people and send a sign of confidence about the region to the world.

In CEE, the attitude towards starting an own business is somewhere between what it is in the US and Western Europe. Yoav Leitersdorf of YL Ventures, who is focused on early stage deals in CEE as well as in Western Europe and in Israel, says that 'here the entrepreneur is a hero'. There is less fear of failure than in Western Europe, which is commonly regarded as one of the reasons why venture in Europe has not yet produced substantial returns. 'In CEE, the entrepreneurial mindset is more daring, more risk-taking, compared with the more conservative views prevalent in the West. It probably also plays a role that many Eastern European entrepreneurs have less to lose in terms of privileges such as healthcare, social security and high basic income,' explains Leitersdorf.

However, that is not always the case, as Jonathan Cooper of Poteza Projektno Svetovanje has observed: 'While the number of skilled, motivated and daring entrepreneurs in CEE has been increasing, CEE - just like Western Europe - still lacks the critical mass of people who want to start out on their own. Many young people I have met want to go and work for the government or the incumbent telecom - not start a company or work for a start-up. They value security more than anything.'

'We have been observing a significant increase in the number of skilled and motivated entrepreneurs over the past ten years,' Sylwester Janik of MCI Management comments. 'What the CEE market needs, however, is more examples of success stories of technology companies originated in the region. This is what drives entrepreneurship.'

(Good) job opportunities have been scarce as state-owned businesses collapsed or were broken up. Especially when it comes to challenging, well-paid jobs, the younger generation often looks for opportunities outside of the region, at least for a number of years at the start of their career. However, the all-new environment combined with low-cost staff make for an excellent environment for start-up entrepreneurs and management teams who dare going it alone and spin out of larger organisations.

CEE has an excellent academic track record and a reputation for outstanding scientific research. Young managers who have been gaining experience in the West increasingly look for opportunities to deploy their academic skills and management knowledge in their home countries. 'Everyone recognises that there is a lot of talent in the region. What many people do not know is that back in the days of communism, each country of the Eastern block had its specialisation. Hence, to this day, some countries are stronger in, for example twireless technologies, IT or biotechnology, than others,' says Orasche.

Cooper adds, 'Regarding cooperation with universities and technology parks, this is an area we have explored extensively, but with little results. The universities need to reform themselves before they can become hotbeds of innovation, and the technology centres need more experience and money. I would say the technology centres are moving in the right direction, but the universities seem to be stuck in the past. They do a good job when it comes to training engineers to work for Siemens or Ericsson, but a poor job in terms of supporting young entrepreneurs.'

Janik agrees: 'There is still a long way to go to leverage and unlock a commercial potential of universities, incubators and technology parks. The "Continental" model of "doing" the science is strong there and there are only a few examples of technology companies developed with success by entrepreneurs with academic backgrounds. However, the CEE region still has a viable opportunity to build on its advantage of the high quality of academic education.'

Two factors from outside the region have contributed to the growth of the venture industry in CEE: 1) the massive capital inflow into the private equity asset class during the credit boom years, which forced investors to look outside their traditional territories to put capital to work (although this trend contributed more to the growth of the buy-out rather than the venture industry in CEE) and 2) the more recent search for returns and investment opportunities at the smaller end of the investment spectrum following the credit crunch.

Hurdles in the way of further growth

Theentrepreneurial environment needs to improve to provide entrepreneurs and investors with a more solid base for growth, no matter in which region exactly they look to operate or expand. Investments in infrastructure are badly needed and form the basis for future growth.

Tax incentives for venture capital investors do exist in some countries but they need to be assessed and adapted to actually do what they are meant to do: attract investors from outside a country and motivate local investors to set up companies and venture capital funds.

This links in with a venture capital-friendly environment which still needs to be constructed in CEE. 'Certain local hubs, such as London, feature an established network of serial entrepreneurs, experienced venture capitalists, lawyers, accountants, intermediaries, journalists, bloggers and event organisers that provide a platform for innovation. This is still just in its early stages of development in CEE,' according to Leitersdorf. 'Western European entrepreneurs and venture capitalists have access to multiple government-sponsored programmes that offer debt financing to small-and-medium-size-businesses, tax breaks and various forms of assistance in attracting investment. Academic institutions offer incubation programmes and guidance. All those things are needed across CEE.'

In terms of labour cost, CEE is more expensive than India and China, which means that entrepreneurs, businesses and investors with a focus on low labour costs are likely to look at other emerging markets. Obviously, this is not a 'hurdle', more a fact, and needs to be compensated with other benefits that CEE can offer and other emerging markets cannot.

Another barrier to overcome, however, is related to language and cultural issues. CEE is very diverse, broken up into some larger and many smaller countries and regions, each with their very own identity. Not many people in the West, where most of the capital for innovation is expected to come from, speak any of those languages and people in the regions are often not fluent enough in Western languages. 'Communication between venture capitalists and entrepreneurs can be a bit tricky at the best of times,' Orasche, who speaks several languages himself, emphasises, and he adds, 'that is why we have set up a multinational team across the Balkans.' Cultural diversity is sometimes underestimated and experienced local investors and entrepreneurs often feel unhappy about investment firms trying to cover the whole of CEE from one single office.

Janik adds, 'The diversity of the CEE region in both culture and economic development requires fund managers with a local knowledge and on-the-ground presence in the major CEE markets.'

Orasche also stresses the lack of co-investors: 'Dealmakers in CEE often have difficulty in finding co-investors, especially those that add value. Nevertheless, we do not see this issue for technology companies with global potential, where the interest of international top VCs is significant.'

Another issue relates to the entrepreneurs themselves more than to the environment in which they operate. It is that oftentimes entrepreneurs lack the drive to become serial entrepreneurs, as is much more common in the US. 'In CEE, most entrepreneurs want to get rich on one deal. The problem with it is that they see their single idea as "the" idea of their lifetime, which makes it very difficult to negotiate a deal and make an investment, as entrepreneurs tend to hold on to their majority stakes. Consequently, companies become national champions worth several million euros, but are unable to take the next step to become regional or global players,' says Cooper.

He adds, 'I also hear about A round, B round, C round, etc., in Western Europe and in the US - this does not really exist in CEE. Companies are lucky to get an A round, and if it all goes well, maybe a B round. But by then, everyone is looking for an exit so they can claim victory with their LP's. We need LPs to be more patient and more risk tolerant in CEE. Another issue is that it is more common for a Polish company to look to partner with a UK company than, say, with a Czech company. In many cases this makes sense, but often it does not. In my opinion, this has to do with low self esteem in the region - a Polish company would be considered more successful if they partner or cooperate with a UK company than a Czech company. This needs to change to make the region stronger.'

'One can find an attitude of "a lifestyle business" among entrepreneurs in the CEE region and focus on building dominant positions in local markets,' says Janik. 'Some of the markets of the CEE region are big enough to make such a strategy viable. However, as the costs of running online companies dropped significantly due to the increase in internet penetration increased, more entrepreneurs started to aim at building regional or global companies.'

Pekka Mäki of 3TS says, 'We have seen that venture capital and private equity deals take longer to complete in CEE, mainly due to the fact that it is a less mature market. However, that has been changing.'

Need for angel investment

CEE is seeing a significant funding gap for investments below €500,000. 'Angel investing is just getting started in CEE. In fact, to support the establishment of angel networks, Poteza is a founder and sponsor of two new angel networks, one in Slovenia and the other one in Croatia. The idea behind both networks is to fill the sub-€500,000 funding gap for small companies,' says Cooper.

Some government grant programmes do exist for small companies, but the funds available too often are too insignificant, especially taking the lengthy bureaucratic process into consideration that entrepreneurs have to go through to secure some of that capital. Cooper is also worried about a lack of role models: 'I would say that there have not been many success stories for new entrepreneurs to follow. This makes for a "gap" with regards to mentors and experience with early stage companies in the region.'

Exit environment and returns

While venture capital returns across the whole of Europe have not been amazing overall yet, there have been some really good exits, among them some very successful IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. 'Emerging exchanges such as the Warsaw Stock Exchange have shown significant progress over the years, although valuations and liquidity are still low in global terms,' says Leitersdorf.

Prior to the recent stock market crashes, it was not just the Warsaw Stock Exchange that had been offering exit routes for venture-backed companies, but also the Prague Stock Exchange, which had clearly been on the up. It remains to be seen whether those stock exchanges will be able to continue the positive trend when the markets come back. AIM and, to some extent, the Vienna Stock Exchange and the small-cap exchange in Vienna have in the past also been very popular destinations for venture-backed companies looking to raise capital or investors to exit.

'There have been some rather sizeable IPOs in CEE,' Mäki stresses.

M&As seem more promising in CEE than IPOs because the region's start-ups are interesting targets for both Ameritern European strategic acquirers. In general, the exit environment had been improving steadily since 2005. It remains to be seen how much CEE is affected by the current downturn.

'It will vary from industry sector to industry sector, but I expect the exit environment to continue to be good because it is more trade sale-based and, hence, less affected by the turmoil in the stock markets,' Orasche says.

Cooper adds, 'M&A has been quite vibrant in the region. Many of the larger Western European companies or funds that are looking for expansion opportunities look towards CEE as a natural geographic extension of their business.'

Shortage of funding

Matthew Gertner is a local venture capitalist in the region. He says, 'My experience has been that it is still pretty much impossible to secure financing for an early stage software company in CEE from a venture capitalist. Funds here tend to focus more on the later stages.'

Gertner also stresses that for a venture capitalist to be a useful partner to an entrepreneur, the venture capitalists needs to have an extensive network of contacts to help portfolio companies succeed. Their networks should include large technology companies (as potential acquirers), other venture funds (for co-investments, follow-on rounds) and PR/marketing firms. 'There are very few people here in the region with those types of networks,' Gertner finds.

Future potential

Venture capital has a long way to go in CEE but there are many encouraging signs for future growth. 'In the years to come, CEE may prove to be more promising than Western Europe from a venture perspective. CEE entrepreneurs are generally more focused on their entrepreneurial challenges than their Western counterparts. At the same time, their cost base is a fraction of Western standards,' Leitersdorf thinks.

There is still just is not enough capital available for early stage investment. However, there are many reasons why CEE venture capital funds and entrepreneurs stand a good chance of attracting a good portion of the capital that is going to be allocated to the emerging markets by institutional and high-net-worth investors over the next few years. Orasche agrees: 'Several venture capital firms have recently started their activities in the region, and there are more to come in the future. The number of angel networks is also on the up.'

CEE venture capitalists expect to raise more capital from local banks, pension funds and insurance companies in the near future. Those institutions typically want to be seen as supporting local entrepreneurship and they are expected to open up more to the alternative asset class, and certain investors sometimes also go for direct investments.

Orasche confirms that he has 'observed a trend towards higher allocations to venture funds by local investors. However, pension funds are still very small compared to the West and rather conservative. Hence, I would not expect too much capital to come from local pension funds in the near future.'

Cooper adds, 'Our fund has 33 LPs, including banks, insurance companies and wealthy individuals. Of that total, one is from Western Europe (Italy), one is from the US, and all the other LPs are from Slovenia, Croatia, and Estonia. Without the support of local LPs, we would not have raised our fund.'

'The acceleration of ecosystem development is the main factor that can make early stage investing more successful in CEE. Government-sponsored programmes that encourage entrepreneurship and small-to-medium-size-enterprises (SMEs) such as making debt financing more accessible will help boost an already-existing entrepreneurial mindset. 'Reduced capital gains taxes, better employment and stock option legislation, more investment in education, and more active measures to encourage foreign investment can all help venture capitalists and entrepreneurs' Leitersdorf underlines, while Orasche stresses the need for more technology centres.

Cooper wants the venture capital community to work together better to help the industry evolve in CEE: 'Better cooperation between CEE venture capitalists would be very beneficial, as would cooperation between CEE technology companies. There should also be more cooperation between venture capitalists and tech companies in the West and their CEE counterparts.'


http://www.altassets.com/private-equity-knowledge-bank/article/nz14980.html

Google aquired law platform for startups LawPivot

this deal continued serie of  investment in emergent growing niches like http://vsocial.livejournal.com/113743.html

About LawPivot.com

It offers entrepreneurs a place where they can get their questions answered confidentially and for free (at least for now).
To use the service, startups just write their question, identify relevant legal keywords, then choose which lawyers to send the question to. Today, LawPivot is also unveiling its new recommendation algorithm, which takes data about users and trends to recommend which lawyer might be best suited to answer each question.

Venture capitalists will be involved in earlier transactions.

It is well known that venture capitalists of this kind - FirstRound Capital, TrueVentures. And, of course, Foundry Group, Union Square: they created a business model based on the idea that the cost of the sale will be less than 10 years ago, and if so, should invest in early stage. In addition, the new funds dealing with investments early stages

It's not just that the venture capital industry comes less money. Those who raise funds, often attracting really little money. Some, like Battery Ventures, contrary to the trend, could attract 750 million.

As a result, many investors tremendous early stages of rapid growth had taken place - talk about Softtech VC, Floodgate, Felicis Ventures, K9 Ventures, OATV, Lowercase Capital, Founder Collective and many others.
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/113279.html

Analising blogger revolution

2.0: Rebooting Tunisia

http://hodorkovski.blogspot.com/2011/01/internet-revolution-in-tunisia.html

Most Rated experts predict gold to $5 000

New confirmation of the consensus forecast up to 2012 http://vsocial.livejournal.com/109356.html

On the methodology of the rating agency Future Rating, the highest weight are the first 3 of the expert, therefore, the price of gold will be as they predict - between 4500 and 5000 dollars. Below is the full list:

Lorimer Wilson, Editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com, identifies the 122 analysts below by name with their price projections and time frame.

These 26 Analysts Believe Gold Will Achieve a Parabolic Peak Price Between $3,000 and $4,999

1. David Moenning: 4,525; www.seekingalpha.com/article/23930-the-b

ig-picture-is-gold-going-to-4-500
2. Mike Knowles: $4,000;
www.stockmarketweekly.com/newsletters/1546-what-is-the-kondratieff-cycle-telling-us-now%20/
3. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston: $4,000;
www.munknee.com/2010/06/the-long-wave-cycle-of-winter-is-coming/

Investors' concerns and cash arguement

There are comment on the optimistic article http://vsocial.livejournal.com/110700.html

 Dag Syrrist of Vision Capital identified other impediments to the entrepreneurial economy, explaining “Spending, housing, expanding employment and investments – are all lagging the stock market rally and until there is sustained progress on these fronts, the venture community is going to hesitate and seek to hedge on deploying new capital. Only a handful of funds are investing with a forward market perspective, and while they are active and deploying capital, the majority are reacting slow to deploy new capital in absence of more robust economic data. Compounding this, is the uncertainty of institutions committing capital to funds, which makes funds with capital to deploy recognize they may have to be much more cautious with rate of new commitments.” Pointing to a possible future hazard to the venture business model, a respondent who remained anonymous voiced concern over potential new tax treatment, stating “Congress’ proposed increase in tax rates for venture capital carried interest is a threat to the venture economy.”

And Igor Sill of Geneva Venture Management reasoned “I don't believe we'll experience another 90s bull market cycle for some 24 - 36 months from now given the current economic and political uncertainties affecting the broader markets. I believe those valuations will be sustained in 2011 and beyond barring any further US or global crises. Risks include the premature withdrawal of our trillion plus dollar economic stimulus since it directly impacts the return of an IPO market (critical for venture investment exits/realizations) and the possible raising of Fed interest rates. I believe we'll see venture investors seeking value-based investments (later stage startups with real revenues) while funding value creation in current, strong portfolio holdings.”

In conclusion, the prevailing sentiment is that of guarded but increasing optimism. Concern over possible future hits to the macro economy and the limited supply of institutional finance available for venture funds has constrained the flow of investment capital to promising start-ups. However, the slow return of the exit market is bringing a sense of normalcy back to the venture business model with major acquisitions occurring alongside a growing IPO calendar.

Major corporate acquisitions ultimately drive further acquisitions out of competitive necessity.This strategic acquisition mandate accompanied by a pent-up supply of efficient, innovative, and private ventures, higher value stock currencies, and low interest rates will spawn more acquisitions and drive up valuations. This long awaited return of liquidity will be a balm to the venture industry and will bring into balance its business model. A tepid consumer, uncertain regulatory policies, and limited inbound capital notwithstanding, a rational sense that we are on the verge of something much better is emerging. The first half of 2010 should confirm this stabilizing trend in the venture environment, and when that base is formed, a powerful spring back to vibrant entrepreneurial growth and investing later in 2011 may be in the cards.

So whose view is more relevant?
 
Let's see. Among the optimists, we have such a visionary like Peter Thiel.
In addition to Facebook, Thiel has made early-stage investments in numerous startups (personally or through his venture capital fund), including Slide, LinkedIn, Friendster, Rapleaf, Geni.com, Clickable Inc, Yammer, Yelp, Inc., Powerset, Vator, Palantir Technologies, Joyent, Rypple, and IronPort. Slide, LinkedIn, Yelp, Geni.com, and Yammer were each founded by colleagues of Thiel’s from PayPal: Slide by Max Levchin, Linkedin by Reid Hoffman, Yelp by Jeremy Stoppelman, Geni.com, Yammer by David Sacks and Xero by Rod Drury. Fortune magazine reports that PayPal alumni have founded or invested in dozens of startups with an aggregate value of around $30 billion. In Silicon Valley circles, Thiel is colloquially referred to as the "Don of the PayPal Mafia"

But Igor Sill - Managing Director and co-founder of Geneva Venture Partners,
he is also good VC. He was a direct private investor in Salesforce.com, Tumbleweed, Callixa (SAP), Siebel Systems, Cohesiant, eBenefits.com, Extricity(PRGN), Finjan, NetGravity, Rubric ( KANA), Weblogic ( BEA Systems) and iWitness ( ZANTAZ), and was an early investor in Powersoft, Microsoft, Sapiens, GigaNet ( EMLX) Ingres, Oracle, and SmartStar Corporation. 

I believe that excess liquidity would take his own!

 U.S. companies had cumulative cash holdings of about $1 trillion


2011 M&A outlook according to vc

 

M&A 2011 outlook - according to VC

Global M&A Set for Surge in 2011
Global M&A activity is expected to increase 36% next year to $3.04 trillion, driven by a big pick-up in deals in the real estate and financial services industries, according to a report released by Thomson Reuters and Freeman Consulting Services.
The survey of over 150 worldwide corporate decision makers showed that instead of bargain-hunting for cheap equity deals, next year's buyers are expected to focus on expanding their core businesses to increase market share, Jeff Nassof, an associate consultant with Freeman told Daily Finance.
"We did the same survey last year and the target [company's] valuations were a factor," Nassof says. "But in this year's survey, people aren't just looking for distressed companies and value deals. They're looking at M&A as part of their competitive strategy."
The real estate market is expected to see a whopping 88% increase in M&A activity, with the financial industry finally recovering to post an anticipated 75% increase, the survey also showed.
While real estate M&A is expected to post a dramatic increase next year, Nassof pointed out that the sector is coming off of a relatively small base. Just $2.23 trillion in M&A deals were done last year.
"The overall 2010 levels are still pretty depressed. It's still nothing like the heydays in 2007," Nassof said. "In real estate, confidence in the economy was the top cited factor. Real estate managers are feeling better about the risk and growth out there."
While M&A in the financial industry is normally market-share driven, next year's activity will be marked by efforts to comply with government regulatory changes that call for big investment banks and institutions to wall themselves off from riskier investments, Nassof said. Last spring's financial reform legislation is forcing some big banks to shed riskier assets including hedge funds and certain derivatives.
Another industry expected to see an increase in M&A is health care, where the survey projects a 16% increase next year, largely due to consolidation as a side effect of healthcare legislation.
As usual, technology companies also are expected to be on the prowl. Executives expect valuations of buyouts will remain "reasonable," even though a recent bidding war between Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) for 3Par Inc. (Nasdaq: PAR) resulted in a premium of 244%.
Doing Deals in Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are expected to lead the M&A surge in 2011, just as they did in 2010.
Fully 47% of the executives polled said emerging Asian markets are ripe for M&A deals in 2011, with 43% targeting markets in the Americas. By comparison, only 30% are looking at Western Europe and only 18% find Eastern Europe and Russia attractive.
During the first three quarters of 2010, emerging markets accounted for 27.4% of worldwide M&A volume compared to 21% during the comparable period in 2009.
M&A activity in deals across international borders surged during the first nine months of 2010, totaling $723 billion and accounting for 41.2% of overall M&A volume, compared to 26.1% last year.
And Asian companies have the necessary cash to get deals done. According to a report from Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), the total cash reserves of Asian companies touched $231.6 billion in mid-2010. Corporations in the Asian region (excluding Australia and Japan) have seen their aggregate cash balance – including cash, cash equivalents, deposits and short-term investments – grow by almost 60% since the end of 2008.
However, the Moody's report did not take into consideration the reserves of financial companies, in which case the total cash reserves figure would have been much higher.
U.S. companies had cumulative cash holdings of about $1 trillion, over four times more than their Asian counterparts, but the average cash balance of Asian companies was almost double that of US companies, the report noted.

Where will flow this cash?


Confidence edged upward in the fourth quarter of 2009 with most responding venture capitalists satisfied that the macro economy has stabilized enough to allow for the resumption of a nearer to normal venture environment. While concern remains over potential economic landmines in the future

(e.g. withdrawal of government stimulus, increasing interest rates, harsher tax treatment, etc.) the notable return of exit opportunities – especially headline acquisitions - is breathing life into the venture business model and likely presages an increasing quantity and quality of exits in 2010. A steady flow of attractive investment opportunities continues. And the difficult economic climate of the last two years has selected out many of the weaker ventures from the mix, thus allowing the survivors to operate in a less cluttered field where they are better able to sell into corporate and retail markets that have pent up demand for the best solutions. Still, concern persists over decreased capital commitments from institutions and the resulting lack of funds for promising investment opportunities. In the following, I provide many of the comments of the participating venture capitalist respondents along with my analysis. Further, all of the Index respondents’ names and firms are listed in Table 1 save those who wished to remain anonymous.
Deal flow appears strong. Bruce MacNaughton of Crosslink Capital confirmed “We’re seeing more
promising startups than we’ve seen in quite awhile.” And Debra Beresini of invencor added “Momentum is beginning to build as valuations are coming to equilibrium and more investments are made. We have heard ‘talk’ that many firms are looking at seed and early stage investments again, and others are focused on those companies closer to revenue. In either case, it means investment into new companies which fuels the economy…” In fact, confidence in the resilience and innovative capacity of entrepreneurs has remained robust through the broader economic decline.

The stabilizing economy will allow venture-backed firms to increase sales to enterprise customers.

Savinay Barry of Granite Ventures observed “Planning and budgeting visibility for enterprises is much better than it was last year, when the future looked opaque. Hence, they are more willing to loosen their purse strings and one of the beneficiaries for this outflow would be startups.” And Steve Harrick of Institutional Venture Partners also finds that “We are seeing an increase in confidence on the customer front. Businesses are beginning to spend again and cost cutting is giving way to strategic IT initiatives.” Similarly, Richard Yen of Saban Ventures noted “There is healthy optimism in the entrepreneurial community as the economy appears to be recovering and revenue streams will start to flow again.” Finally, Victor Hwang of T2 Venture Capital expects that “Macroeconomic situation has stabilized, and big companies will be tight on cash in coming years, creating more space for entrepreneurs to innovate.”
More exit opportunities are supporting the venture business model. Deepak Kamra of Canaan Partners observes “Exuberant public markets and expected increases in tech spending by enterprises and
consumers.” Chester Wang of Acorn Campus also sees a “limited IPO window opening.” And Dan
Lankford of Wavepoint Ventures noted “We are seeing some increase in M&A activity, which is always a
good sign!”

Venky Ganesan of Globespan Capital elaborated “Nothing succeeds like success. The impending IPO’s of Facebook, LinkedIn, Solyndra, Silver Spring Networks, etc.; the consummated acquisitions of Admob (acquired by Google), Playfish (acquired by EA) and Jajah (acquired by O2) all show that high growth venture backed startups are back. Like moths to the flame when the exits start happening in 2010, the venture money and the entrepreneurs are going to be back (and I am afraid so will the tourists). I am bullish on 2010.” And Shomit Ghose of Onset Ventures agreed “The tech IPO market will begin to return in 2010…” Finally, Jeb Miller of JAFCO Ventures indicated “We're seeing the availability of quality entrepreneurs and an improving exit environment combine to help reignite interest in building new companies around emerging opportunities in digital media, cloud computing, health IT and green IT.

Optimism is returning. Kurt Keilhacker of TechFund Capital stated “While there is some caution with
macro employment problems and worrisome tax policies, there is guarded optimism in Silicon Valley. Indeed, we are witnessing some tectonic technological shifts that are just in their infancy." And Sandy Miller of Institutional Venture Partners declared “We have returned to a healthy normalcy in the technology venture environment. It feels like the pre-bubble 1990s. The exit market has peeked open with an active IPO calendar and greatly enhanced acquisition interest by the big cash-rich technology company acquirers. This in turn is spurring new entrepreneurial start-ups as liquidity comes into the venture business. 2010 should be an active year for both new investments and exits. There is indeed light at the end of the tunnel!”
Looking to the past as prologue, Graham Burnette of Red Planet Capital recollected that “Silicon Valley
has historically produced the most value in the years following a crash. In the words of one of my partners, many generations of Silicon Valley companies have been built on the rubble of the previous generation. We now have a situation in which many weak firms have been cleared away and talented people are available to help a new generation of exciting companies to grow. Entrepreneurs with great ideas never went away, and money is again flowing to fund those great ideas. I believe that we are in the midst of a very exciting time.”
However, the supply of venture financing is limited. Robert Ackerman of Ccommented

“I expect to continue to see more demand for capital for start-up ventures than there will be available capital. The consolidation of the venture industry and difficulties for many managers in new fund formation will only complicate this supply/demand in balance. That said, there is no shortage of quality start-up investment opportunities.” And Joe Mandato of De Novo Ventures explained “there is still much uncertainty in the venture industry; the bar for investments is higher, the timelines for exits is longer and the exit options are fewer. Compounding this is the increased challenge to raising new funds.” One VC respondent who wished to remain anonymous observed “continued challenges in raising money,” while another confirmed that “financing environment for small entrepreneurial companies continues to be treacherous.” In fact, Thomson Reuters and the National Venture Capital Association reported that 2009 was the slowest fund raising year (by number of new or follow-on funds established) since 1993.2
Natural selection still rules. Tom Rodgers of Advanced Technology Ventures detailed “The
environment is going through a natural Darwinian contraction. There is already less money going towards fewer companies. We will see the stronger companies surviving and thriving and the more disruptive and resilient approaches will continue to be funded. This is good for the long-term health of the environment. Venture firms with active funds are looking to put money to work but are taking a very disciplined and opportunistic approach. However, many well run companies will continue to focus on rational strategic growth during this climate as opposed to high growth that may come to involve a risky price tag.”

VC prospects outlook

The Fenwick & West Venture Capital Barometer analyzed the valuations and terms of venture financings for 107 Silicon Valley-based technology and life science companies that reported raising capital during the third quarter.
It found that while liquidity, usually in the form of mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings, has been improving, the overall amount of venture investing is continuing its recent decline as potential investors wait for a more sustainable VC model to appear.
“The likely reason for this is that the venture model is currently out of equilibrium,” said Barry Kramer, a partner of Fenwick & West and co-author of the survey.
“Even though venture funds have reduced their investments in companies, they are still investing more than is being invested in venture funds,” he added. “In other words, over the past couple years, venture funds have had a significantly greater outflow of funds than they have had inflow of new capital. This is not sustainable.”
Kramer said that the valuations at which venture capitalists invest continues to be “relatively reasonable and stable,” but that it is likely valuations will start to decline if the amount of venture investment continues to decrease.


Barry Kramer, a partner at the law firm, notes that the US VC market invested $6.5 billion in start-ups in the quarter but only $1.9 billion raised for new investments, “the math doesn’t work,” he said.

Mr. Kramer goes on to say that ““The VCs are saying there are good companies out there, they deserve to be funded, but if we don’t start seeing the rest of the world agreeing … there’s no way that we’re not going to see less investment by venture capitalists and at reduced valuations,”

The “rest of the world “ does understand that technology is global, entrepreneurs are global and money is global.

From the Global Trends in Venture Capital 2010 Global Report Deloitte 2010 –
1) VC Industry expected to contract in traditional markets (U.S. & Europe) and
grow in emerging markets (China, India & Brazil)
2) Limited Partners expected to shift larger allocations to emerging markets

The larger problem is with the Early Stage Marketplace.
1) There is good Demand (Funding/Partners – but it is not in the US – from the Deloitte 2010 report)
LPs Inclination to Invest in the VC’s Home Country over the next 5 years
Brazil 92% of LPs were more inclined to invest
China 91 % of LPs were more inclined to invest
India 76% were more inclined to invest
US 15% were more inclined to invest and 56% were less inclined to invest
2) There is good Supply (Startups, Entrepreneurs, Support Organizations)

3) The Channels of Distribution are Constrained both geographically and across the stakeholders (Validation Partners, Funders, Sponsoring Organizations and Sponsored Companies.)


Local knowledge and personal relationships will always be the cornerstone of venture investing. But, there must be a rewiring of the total Early Stage Marketplace to recognize that technology is global, entrepreneurs are global and money is global.

It was Elliott Dahan - author of
www.earlystagemarketplace.com

Sources of economic forecasts - in rating order

http://hodorkovski.blogspot.com/2011/01/sources-of-economic-forecasts-in-rating.html

Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows the recession start in 2001

The Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows the ratio of the price of the Dow to the price of gold. Another way to look at it is the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy one share of the Dow. For example, with the Dow at 10,000 and gold at 500, it requires 20 ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow, so the ratio is 20. The reason for using gold is that gold is the most unbiased form of money in existence. Fake government paper money comes and goes, but gold has been money for thousands of years. It is the ultimate store of wealth.

The chart shows the cyclical nature of the battle between paper assets and hard assets. Paper assets excel when everyone is fixated on growth. When the growth phase ends, and preservation of wealth becomes the paramount concern, gold tends to excel. When paper burns, gold shines.
Souce
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/110510.html

Russia - the country of "addicted" innovators

In fact, the vast majority of participants in an innovative industry in Russia has transformed to become "addicted", where as "drugs" are the low cost funds. These investments are generally fairly easy to obtain: State control is formal, and as a result almost always in favor of the written report. By such an environment people will quickly get used to, lose their skills, looking primarily at the budget, complain about the circumstances and constantly require new appropriations. The situation is very similar to life with an addict: the more money you give, the more his health was getting worse. Let me give you another example. Sufficiently well-known expert in the field of innovative business I once told a very interesting and instructive history. When the Russian Venture Company (RVC) has announced a tender in which the winners later received about 0.5 billion U.S. dollars of public funds, he was asked to enter in the application as an expert, and he even helped establish a pool of projects for one fund, participated in this competition. However, subsequently, after the receipt of federal resources, and his services, and from all submitted projects at once refused, asking, however, formally of the fund does not go away. According to my friend, the previous was only need for cover, and the money most quickly, in a subsequent focused on solving their own problems and not so poor holding. Should be noted that the new leadership of RMC is a much more accurate and balanced policy, but the Russian taxpayer money still sorry. Today in Russia there are more than 50 venture capital funds, and their total capital is, according to various estimates, from 2 to 5 billion U.S. dollars. Unfortunately, most of them are properly called private equity funds, since prefer to invest only in the later stages of company development, innovation when it is difficult to call. Of course there are exceptions, but few of them. Amazing picture is emerging with various grants and programs of the Ministry of Education and Science in the field of innovation. Russian government invests here considerable. However, if someone familiar with the criteria for determining the winners, then were surprised to realize - none of the leading young scientists, nor the most advanced innovative business virtually no chance of winning, because everything is determined by a list of formal characteristics, such as the number of Doctors participating in the project. But my experience, alas, have long said: The more, the probability of obtaining a good result below. In general, from all of the above begs the sad conclusion: with few exceptions the bulk of existing institutions in Russia, forming the national innovation infrastructure (universities, foundations, industrial parks, business incubators etc.), mutated and unable to participate in a real process of innovation. 

 

 

Удивительная картина складывается с различными грантами и программами министерства образования и науки в области инноваций. Инвестиции в последние годы, надо отдать должное, правительство направляет сюда немалые. Однако если кто-то ознакомится с критериями определения победителей, то с большим удивлением поймёт – ни у ведущих молодых учёных, ни у самых продвинутых инновационных бизнесменов практически нет ни одного шанса на выигрыш, потому что всё определяется перечнем формальных признаков, как, например, число докторов наук, участвующих в проекте. Но мой опыт, увы, давно уже говорит: чем их больше, тем вероятность получения хорошего результата ниже.

В целом, из всего вышесказанного напрашивается печальный вывод: за редким исключением основная часть существующих в России институтов, формирующих национальную инновационную инфраструктуру (вузы, фонды, технопарки, бизнес-инкубаторы и др.), мутировала и не в состоянии участвовать в реальном инновационном процессе.
http://spb-venchur.ru/polezno/info/ternisty_put.htm

FORECAST on the second decade of the 21 century

consensus - forecasts of rating association FUTURE EUROPE, can be obtained on http://vsocial.livejournal.com/109356.html - in future (2012) second wave of the crisis will ruin one of the country, and exalt others.
It is consensus propnosis of the majority of independent experts, from Nobel laureates to bloggers

100 prophets of the investment world in 21 century

Investigation of the effectiveness of investment on the first decade of the 21 century.
Created by Future Europe Rating association in 2010.

The rating technique is as follows:
we take the ratings of lucky investors that exit with the highest multipliers
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/99/midas09_The-Midas-List_Rank.html
http://www.herringevents.com/RHE2010/rhe2010winners/rhe2010winners.html
http://www.altiusdirectory.com/Business/world-top-billionaires.php
www.absolutereturn-alpha.com/Article/245

3645/The-Rich-List.html
http://www.trackhedgefunds.com/tiger-global-management-llc
www.redherring.com/home/26206
http://alwayson.goingon.com/2010/Top-Tech-Exits-Last-Year-0
http://alwayson.goingon.com/AOStory/Introducing-2009-Venture-Capital-100
http://www.mtvlp.com/article.php?id=96
and add the investors that invested in early stage companies that are now showing the fastest growth (according to www.inc.com/inc5000/2010/index.html and http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/28/fast-tech-growth-technology-fasttech09_0129_intro.html).
The rankings have been based on the weight of investments, exits and market perceptions.

In total, our field of vision were more than 100 investment companies have provided over the past 5-10 years, long-term growth in sales volume at a level no less than 35-40% per annum, and got in at least two reputable international rating.

Then we compile a list of his investments in fast-growing companies, and rating them by the number of successes (exits and invested companies from top-growest sectors with the highest multipliers - the biotechnology and ITC, including social media network).

Consider how increased investment in the three most successful project for each of them.
Detail: We make individually-group rating, so if someone from the investors have invested together in the composition of a company
Somehow this company and should be put as the sum of the 3 most successful investments of its members.

The highest weight, we have given rating of FORBES -
TOP 10 MIDAS LIST - ranking formula weighs most heavily either the market capitalization of the venture-backed firm at the time of its initial public offering or the company's acquisition price if purchased by another corporation.


Rating of prophets of the investment world - 

http://vsocial.livejournal.com/108616.html