Friday, December 23, 2011

The consensus forecast: the crisis form a double dip

This double-dip crisis was predicted in 2008 by Edward Musinsky.
The study has done in September-December 2010, in three stages:

1. Content analysis of macroeconomic forecasts published by the world's leading research institutions (methods: Scanning sources, analysis of global trends).
2. Drawing the consensus forecast by weighting the citation index of authors forecast
3. Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) the consensus forecast from its own investigation, "the driving forces and trends in the global economy"

Now all the economic experts agree that the second wave of the crisis is inevitable.


Wednesday, December 14, 2011

THE VENTURE INVESTORS FUTURE RANKING

There is our ranking of venture capital investors with social activity and a vision of the future.


To do this, we analyzed  M&A and IPO exit  over the last five years, and the second part of the rating model was a reference count for a particular investor, and a content analysis of its forward-looking statements on the Internet.
To complement analysis we convened experts opinions about Investors leadership within sector, and his overall authority in the venture capital industry.





The venture prophets 


1. Peter Thiel


2. Michael Moritz



3. Fred Wilson


4. Mark Andreessen


5. Reid Hoffman


6. L. John Doerr



7. Kevin Efrusy


8. Sean Parker



9. Ron Conway


10.  Michael Arrington



11. Paul Graham


12. Andreas von Bechtolsheim   


13. Alan Patricof 



14. Ram Shriram


15. Peter Fenton


16. Aneel Bhusri


17. Timothy Draper 


18. David Cheriton,


19. Vinod Khosla 


20. Max Levchin


21. Howard Hartenbaum,          August Capital  Had big exit in 2008 from social network Bebo, bought by AOL for $850 million. Was a primary investor in Internet phone company Skype, Cashed out in eBay's $3.1 billion acquisition


22.   David Skok, Matrix Partners. Made early investment in data warehousing company Netezza, which went public and was subsequently acquired by IBM for $2.9 billion. Value add investor helped sell storage outfit Diligent to IBM for $200 million in 2008 and was instrumental in building and selling open-source middleware developer JBoss to Red Hat for $350 million in 2006.
23. David Sze, led Greylock's investment in Facebook in early 2006 when it was still a closed network of 10 million co-eds. He has since led the firm's investments in soon-to-be-public LinkedIn (Greylock holds a 16% ownership stake), Pandora (14%) and Digg. His other investments include Revision3 (online video service), Oodle (online classifieds), VUDU (online video service acquired by Wal-Mart Stores), SoftCoin (interactive promotions outfit acquired by You Technology) and New Edge Networks (acquired by EarthLink


24. Hendrik Brandis, Co-founder and managing partner of Earlybird;  past chairman of the EVCA Venture Capital Platform Council. More than 16 years experience as investor and entrepreneur; focus on web-enabled services. Most successful exits: Dianoema (Milan: NOE.MI); element 5 to Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV); dooyoo.de to Le Guide.com S.A.


25. Antoine Papiernik, Sofinnova Partners.  Medronic's $700 million purchase of portfolio company CoreValve, the largest exit in Sofinnova's 37-year history. Papiernik led the sole investment in CoreValve's first round, fended off early acquisition offers and ultimately earned ten times his investment. Led a seed investment in Fovea, which sold to Sanofi Aventis for $500 million in 2006. Also led early stage investments in Addex and Movetis, which had successful public offerings in 2007 and 2009


26. Brad Feld, Foundry Group. Notable companies that Brad has invested in and/or sat on the boards of include Abuzz (acq. NYT), Anyday.com (acq. PALM), Critical Path (CPTH), Cyanea (acq. IBM), Dante Group (acq. WEBM), DataPower (acq. IBM), FeedBurner (acq. by GOOG), Feld Group (acq. by EDS), Gist (acq. by RIM), Harmonix (acq. VIA), NetGenesis (IPO), ServiceMagic (acq. IACI), and ServiceMetrics (acq. EXDS).


27. Roger Ehrenberg, is the founder and Managing Partner of IA Ventures. Prior to forming IA Ventures, Roger was an active angel investor through IA Capital Partners, a seed-stage investment firm focused on digital media and financial technology. From 2004 to 2009, Roger seeded 40 companies, including bit.lyBuddy MediaClickableInvite Media (sold to Google), MagneticMyTrade (sold to TD Ameritrade), Solve MediaStocktwitsTheLaddersTweetDeck (sold to Twitter) and Wallstrip (sold to CBS Interactive). Earlier in his career, Roger served as President and CEO of DB Advisors, LLC, Deutsche Bank’s internal hedge fund trading platform where his 130-person team managed $6 billion in capital across multiple strategies with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. Before DB Advisors, Roger was Global Co-head of Deutsche Bank’s Strategic Equity Transactions Group. In 2000, Roger’s team won Institutional Investor magazine’s “Derivatives Deal of the Year” award.


28.   Bill Gross, chief executive officer of Idealab and UberMedia


29.   Gregory R. Gretsch ,            Sigma Partners EqualLogic, acquired by Dell for $1.4 billion in the biggest exit of the year. Also had a piece of Postini (acquired by Google in 2007 for $625 millions


30. Stefan Glänzer Best Angel Investor of the Year 2010

Monday, November 14, 2011

Euro architect generated new financial idea

Bernard Lietaer exclusive funancial idea

Invited to participate in the movement of "occupy Wall Street," Bernard Lietaer,  well-known economist and architect of euro currency, has made its information contribution to saving the global financial system.


The idea is called ECOs: a proposal that would make it possible for a city or region to fund ecological and/or social programs without burdening the authorities' budgets.


ECO, or  Environmental Conventional Oof


I have checked this information by calling personally Lietaer. And I received from him an even more exclusive information. Moreover, it is a sensation!

Representatives of the Obama administration contacted Lietaer, and asked him to submit his idea through official channels.


About ECO.

Conventional means includes among others paying all labor required at market rates for all the relevant work. 
The purpose of the system is to encourage green and healthy activities, beautify the neighborhood, and generally improve the quality of life in the neighborhood. The starting point was a survey with the question: What would be most desirable to the local resident population. The answer, particularly for the inhabitants of the apartment buildings, was to have access to a few square meters of land for gardening, for growing vegetables and flowers. The city provides access to the land: An old factory site that had been demolished and the land was left untended, plots of land that are waiting for building permits, a back part of a park, even the center of a large traffic roundabout. The land is made available for rent on a month to month basis. 

Local NGO's whose mission is in alignment with that intention would also be invited to get involved. 

Friday, November 11, 2011

TOP disruptive technology and Thiel opinion

Top-10 technology of future was identified by Future Rating association.
It is rated "critical" technologies, so named because they have the capacity offered by new markets significantly below the size of markets, "close" as a result caused bytheir increased productivity. Their use will make unnecessary a lot of common plants,and thus - eliminating jobs working for them. A classic example of "closing" of technology - technology consolidation of rails that can lead to a threefold decrease indemand for them, and to a corresponding reduction in their release.


One of venture investor having long term vision, Peter Thiel said about tech innovation:
 “Innovation in the world today is somewhere between dire straits and dead … outside of computers and the Internet, we’ve had forty years of stagnation.
The question about a tech innovation slowdown, the remarkable question is really why this question is not at the surface. If you were to take a very simple Socratic method, and start with just what are the common opinions people have, not in Athens but in America, the common opinion is that things are on the wrong track. That their kids, that the next generation, will not be as well off as the current generation. These common opinions, while they may be right or wrong, are completely at odds with the sort of techno-optimism that is so prevalent in these discussions.


Thursday, November 10, 2011

New Peter Thiel initiative

After Peter Thiel initiative in education,
welcome to the most technology advanced program in venture world.


Calling for more rapid innovation in science and technology, Peter Thiel today launched a new program of the Thiel Foundation, Breakout Labs. Speaking at Stanford to an event organized by the Business Association of Stanford Entrepreneurial Students, Thiel announced that Breakout Labs will use a revolving fund to improve the way early-stage science and technology research is funded by helping independent scientists and early-stage companies develop their most radical ideas.
"Some of the world's most important technologies were created by independent minds working long nights in garage labs," said Thiel. "But when their ideas are too new, unproven, or unpopular, these visionaries can find it difficult to obtain support. Through Breakout Labs, we're going to create opportunities for revolutionary science by cultivating an entrepreneurial research model that prizes extreme creativity and bold thinking."
With venture capital shifting to later and later stages of development and commercialization, and with ever shorter investment time horizons, there are few available means of support for independent early-stage development of science and technology. But many of these technologies are ripe for the same kind of innovations that began in computing during the 1970s, when small, visionary start-ups began to take on industry giants who wielded much bigger research and development budgets. Breakout Labs will accelerate this trend.
"Venture capital firms look for research that can be brought to market within five to seven years, and major funders like the National Institutes of Health have a low tolerance for radical ideas," said Breakout Labs founder and executive director Lindy Fishburne. "At Breakout Labs, we're looking for ideas that are too ahead of their time for traditional funding sources, but represent the first step toward something that, if successful, would be groundbreaking."
Three core conditions of Breakout Labs funding set it apart from traditional research dollars.
  • The work it supports is entrepreneurial and fully independent from formal research institutions.
  • The work is at an early stage, possibly even before proof of concept, but success would be a critical step toward a potential breakthrough that could dramatically change the world.
  • The work will support the acceleration of innovation through revenue-sharing and open access publication.
Breakout Labs funding is not a typical foundation grant. Instead, successful projects will help support the next generation of scientific exploration by assigning a modest portion of resulting revenue back to Breakout Labs.
"Over just the last few years, incredibly powerful research tools have become available at prices that researchers can afford outside of a university or government-supported setting," said Clarium managing director and Breakout Labs cofounder Ajay Royan. "We're on the cusp of a tremendous explosion in entrepreneurial science, and Breakout Labs is going to enable more and more independent visionaries to change the world."
Projects from across the spectrum of scientific disciplines will be considered for support, and funding will typically range from $50,000 to $350,000, but may vary substantially. In the interest of accelerating scientific development, support from Breakout Labs requires investigators to maximize the dissemination of the resulting innovations, either through open access publication or intellectual property development.
The Foundation has begun evaluating proposals and expects to announce the first awards as early as December 2011.
For more information or to submit an application for consideration, please visit www.BreakoutLabs.org

Peter Thiel initiated the technology talent fund?

Peter Thiel opinion:

Innovation In The World Today Is Between ‘Dire Straits And Dead’


"Our world needs more breakthrough  technologies,” said Thiel. "From Facebook to SpaceX to Halcyon  Molecular, some of the world's most transformational technologies were  created by people who stopped out of school because they had ideas that  couldn't wait until graduation.

“This fellowship will  encourage the most brilliant and promising young people not to wait on  their ideas, either. The Thiel Fellows will change the world and call it  a senior thesis.” The Thiel Foundation will award 20 people under 20  years old cash grants of $100,000 to further their innovative scientific  and technical ideas.

The Thiel Foundation will award up to 20 people under 20 years old  cash grants of $100,000 to further their innovative scientific and  technical ideas. In addition, over a two year period, our network of  tech entrepreneurs and philanthropists—drawn from PayPal, Facebook,  Palantir Technologies, Founders Fund, the Singularity Institute, the  Seasteading Institute, and others—will teach the recipients about  creating disruptive technologies and offer mentorship, employment  opportunities, support, and training.

Though applicants may already have in mind scientific or technical  ideas, the Thiel Fellowship is not limited to those with developed  innovations. The purpose of the Fellowship is broad: the grants are  intended to enable the recipients to achieve a specific objective,  produce a report or other similar project, or improve or enhance a  scientific, technical, or charitable capacity, skill, or talent.


Future trends. Following Paypal gang

Virgin Group's Richard Branson invests in Square following Paypal experience.

The business mogul gets in on the mobile payments scene shortly after investing in Tumblr


Mobile and social. Is it a main trend?

PayPal founders Peter Thiel and Max Levchin are bad visioners. Why they left their company?

What do they think about the future and what they invest now?

Thiel, aside from being on the Board of Directors for companies like Palantir Technologies, Geni, and Asana, an early investor and former board member at Facebook, and also happens to be founder and president of hedge fund Clarium Capital as well as Managing Partner of his VC firm, Founder’s Fund. Levchin was founder and CEO of Slide (which was acquired by Google),which he recently left when Google deadpooled all but one of Slide’s products.
Thiel and Levchin both famously steered PayPal (which they co-founded) through tricky waters during the crazy dotcom days, building it into the company we know today. Now, Thiel and Levchin are back working together, but this time on a different enterprise: A book. Along with Gary Kasparov, the two have written a book, called “The Blueprint: Reviving Innovation, Rediscovering Risk, and Rescuing the Free Market”, which is expected to be published in March 2012. At TechCrunch Disrupt in San Francisco today, Thiel and Levchin sat down with TC’s own Erick Schonfeld to talk about the changing face of innovation, disruption, and technology in the U.S.
According to Levchin, the basic premise of the book is, of course, “majorly controversial”, in that, despite what the popular media might tell us, innovation in the world today is actually “between dire straights and dead”. Both Levchin and Thiel said that they felt the need to call out the world, to wake up the average American, to the depressing state of deep innovation in our current landscape.
Although the tech industry has been one of the bright spots in the American economy, and every day a new Web 2.0 and 3.0 startup seems to pop up, both entrepreneurs are of the mindset that real, deep innovation is not taking place in today’s market. Instead, companies are solving small problems, creating features, and few are addressing the real, world-changing, hard problems that are still hiding behind the curtain. “It’s becoming a disaster which people in Silicon Valley aren’t even talking about”, Thiel said.
Levchin said that, while there isn’t a single cause of this innovation slow-down, they have both mutually come to the conclusion that the overall risk-taking culture has declined. The famous speeches that once inspired a generation to get behind the moon launch and NASA’s blasting our imaginations into space. Today, the space program is on its last legs, and privatized space travel is on the rise. But it’s a global problem, not just an American one.
Levchin said that we have all this technology that allows us to churn through ideas quickly, but “hard” is what often correlates to value, and startups today aren’s addressing enough “hard problems”. If you’re trying to find a new wrinkle to disrupt on Angry Birds, you’re not solving those hard problems.
“What’s desperately needed in our society”, Thiel said, “is companies that represent genuine progress, not just frantic change from one fashion to another”.



 

Thiel forecast

 “There’s absolutely no bubble in technology.”
This is Thiel’s Web 2.0 version of the infamous quote from Web 1.0 uber-VC John Doerr, who said at the height of the last bubble that the Internet was then “underhyped” (which turned out to be pretty accurate overall, except to investors who lost their shirts in the bust).
The Stanford undergraduate and law school grad is in many ways a breath of fresh air for Silicon Valley–an entrepreneur (he was co-founder and CEO of PayPal, which he flipped to eBay in 2002 for $1.5 billion and personally pocketed $55 million in the transaction), a center square of a new kind of VC keiretsu (ex-PayPalers have their mitts in everything from Facebook to YouTube to Slide and more) and, best of all, someone willing to say deliciously wild things (he’s essentially John Doerr unplugged).
“If we got an offer from someone for $10 billion, we probably would listen to them,” said Thiel 

Monday, August 8, 2011

New era of the Great Instability

The downgrade the U.S. caused panic in financial markets.
Somehow unnoticed was the same signal in Japan. The corresponding position of experts of international rating agency Moody's Investors Service will win in the weekly report Weekly Credit Outlook.
In the new era of instability of the Great - the old principle of counter-productive of rating as cause more volatility in the markets.
The basis of the Western economy - the rating agencies. Their behavior is plunging the world into a vicious circle of sales and impairments of assets - and this despite the enormous liquidity for investors! The money supply will result in the commodity market and cause hyper-inflation. Greater volatility in the global economy will last until you change the principle of the existence of rating agencies.

The charges leveled against Western rating agencies that their actions caused the global financial crisis are unfounded, says head of McGraw-Hill Companies, which owns the international rating agency Standard & Poor's, Harold McGraw III (Harold McGraw III), whose words led online edition of The Financial Times.
Nevertheless, the head of McGraw-Hill expressed confidence that the S & P has come out of this situation, an updated and larger, and the idea of ​​nationalization of the Chinese rating agency seems he was not too successful. "Agency to trust, it must be transparent and independent, open to clients - said McGraw.

John Connor comment:
An era of great instability, which I wrote since the beginning,  will be until the rating agencies change their operating principle.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Super angels

There are the three contributing factors to the emergence of the current angel investor ecosystem:
1: With the emergence of new platforms and channels (like, but not only, the internet) the capital barrier to entry for new companies has come way down.
2: Now that we’re 10+ years into new media, there’s a large pool of experienced people who have accumulated enough wealth for speculative investments (and have the knowledge/courage to do so).
3: It’s fun to be part of the creation of new products!
Based on these three factors, I don’t see angel investing going away any time soon, in fact, I think we’re only at the beginning of a capital market that is going to be a major part of the innovation ecosystem for a long time to come.
What I like most about the proliferation of early-stage capital sources is that it means entrepreneurs have a wider array of choices, and thereby a greater ability to align their, and their investors’ objectives.  If you want to create one of Mike Maples’ Thunder Lizards and take over the world, you can call Mike.  If you think there’s an untapped niche and you’re sure you can create a highly-targeted service for it, you can give Dave McClure a call and be one of his 500 Startups.  You can swing for the fences, or try to lay down a bunt. 
I also think, in the end, the proliferation of early-stage capital sources will be a good thing for the big VCs, it means they’ll have many more sprouts from which to choose.  I do think it’s going to slightly push the focus of “traditional” VCs towards slightly later stages of company development. In the end, however, that will probably be a good thing as I think it will take some of the risk out of their deals.  So, yes, valuations will rise (a common complaint made by VCs about angels), but in parallel risk should fall.
What entrepreneurs really want
The law firm Dorsey & Whitney did a great study on “The evolving investor landscape.”  
What I liked most about the study are the quotes at the end. The themes in these write-in responses are probably worthy of being on the first page of the report rather than the last. What they illustrate is that what matters to entrepreneurs isn't just the financial dynamics, but the investor’s experience, trustworthiness, ability to form capital and if they’re availability to even return a phone call (or get a beer).  My guess is most top entrepreneurs would be flexible on valuation in order to get the right investor team pulled together.
Additionally, the right angel investor can make meaningful contributions to the development of a company. On stage, at a recent Vator splash event, Neil Young, the founder of ngmoco, recounted a pivotal moment where Mike Maples, one of his angel investors and board observers, made a key insight about their business model: http://vator.tv/n/1788 (right around minute 20:30) – having an experienced entrepreneur and angel investor at the table at that moment added a tremendous amount of value. This is a great example of why having a mixture of VCs and angels can, at key moments, be good for companies

Monday, July 4, 2011

Venture bubble 2.0

More than $5 billion of venture capital investment flowed into young web companies globally in the first four months of the year, data from Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence shows.

Though small compared with the boom years, the sum puts 2011 on track to be the busiest in dollar terms since 2000, when more than $55 billion was deployed to back nascent technology firms.

The latest frenzy bears some of the hallmarks of the previous web investment craze -- exuberance over "concept" start-ups that have not launched their sites and intense competition among potential backers to place bets in presumptive hot spots, such as the social media space now defined by the likes of Facebook and LinkedIn.

Entrepreneurs such as Clara Shih, chief executive of Hearsay, a San Francisco-based specialty software provider, enjoy more leverage with investors than last time and talk about having their pick of potential backers. Shih said she had already raised $3 million, when cash came knocking at her door.

"Honestly, we weren't thinking of raising money, but now it's kind of landed on our lap, we may be open to it," Shih said in an interview with Reuters Insider.

Herd investment behavior gives rise to talk that another Internet bubble is forming, particularly when analysts see valuations on the order of $70 billion for Facebook and $15 billion for Groupon calculated from private investments.

"I've heard ... many venture capitalists who are saying, 'No, there's not a bubble,'" said Dana Stalder, a partner in the Silicon Valley office of the venture capital firm Matrix Partners.

"When you're seeing valuations double in the last 12 months for the same company, the same team, it feels like a bubble to me."

But other characteristics of the current boom do set it apart from the one that ended in collapse 10 years ago.

* VC investors say more of today's young companies are profitable or on a clearer path to profitability as the advent of cloud computing helps to lower operating costs dramatically from a decade ago

* Online advertising and e-commerce, in their infancy a decade ago, have matured into accepted and more reliable revenue sources

* The rush to cash out through an initial public offering has slowed. Bountiful sources of private investment, a raft of new public company disclosure regulations and the growth of alternative venues for trading private company shares provide the means and incentive to delay going public

Perhaps the most distinguishing factor from the "It's different this time" litany is that today's web frenzy is global.

In the three years that marked the height of the last boom, 1999 through 2001, the VC industry sank $96.4 billion into web start-ups, with more than 80 percent of that or nearly $78 billion in the United States alone, the Thomson Reuters data show. Of 10,755 VC deals over that run, 7,174 took place in the U.S. market.

Not so today. Of the more than $5 billion of VC money invested so far in 2011, just $1.4 billion has been deployed in U.S. start-ups. according to Thomson Reuters data. Roughly three quarters of the 403 deals have taken place overseas.

Moreover, it is the big deals that as often as not are now happening outside of the United States. Of the 25 biggest consumer Internet deals last year, 15 were non-U.S. investments, according to Quid, a Silicon Valley research start-up that tracks VC investment flows. Nearly half, 12, were Chinese.

The investors as well as the start-ups have an increasingly international flavor. Perhaps the most notable new face among today's Internet king makers is Russian billionaire Yuri Milner, CEO of DST Global. Milner has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Facebook, Groupon and Zynga. Last month his firm invested $500 million in 360Buy,com, China's biggest business-to-consumer website.

The Disruptive Technology Rating

More than $22 billion of venture capital investment flowed into young companies globally in the first ten months of the year, data from Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence shows.

Analyzing the distribution of investment in the aspect of technology, as well as conducting a content analysis of the views most cited expert, John Connor has made a preliminary rating of breakthrough technologies

The complete Rating of disruptive technology will be done by Edward Musinski

TOP 30 of disruptive technology

1. Mobile payments
By 2012, smartphone shipments are expected to exceed the sum of desktop and notebook PCs, according to Morgan Stanley research. Mobile payment platform – the most important technology for future
2. Real-time data connectedness. This is secret weapon of Google and other company which take control over many sites, marketing platforms and social networks
3. Clean energy including water purification. Future scarcity of water makes a demand of water purification technology with simultaneous production of energy
4.     Medical testing micro devices
5. SaaS and the ‘cloud’
6. Internet and mobile social network
7. 3d
8. Trading software
9. Online interactive games
10. 5G and LTE

11.      Contactless interface
12.      Discount E-commerce
13.      Geolocation
14.      Biodegradable polymers
15.      Software-powered brain devices (NBIC is mega-trend of XXI century)
16.      Informational security using artificial intelligence
17.      Real-time images identification technology 
18.      Augmented Reality 
19.      Vebinar and interactive video
20.  Regenerative medicine (Stem cells)
21.  Real-time speech recognition and voice translator
22.  Nanotechnology filtration
23.  P2P-lending
24.  OmniTouch display
25.  The Tip-Based Nanofabrication
26.  Energy Storage Materials
27.  Open source app
28.  Personal Genome Machine
29.  Wireless energy transfer
30.  Nano-drive