The most important trends in global economy 2012

Trend #1 according to foresight expert Edward Musinski - 

Asian investments around the world.

Only some examples.

1.The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is a major player in European real estate, whether it is a finished asset or development.  Qatar Holdings LLC has made its first investment in a class-A office project in Poland. http://www.swfinstitute.org/swf-news/qatar-holdings-buys-warsaw-office-development/

2. The Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment Co, which is a sovereign wealth enterprise of the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), plans to invest €250 million (US$ 337.4) in developing an Adriatic resort in Montenegro.  http://www.swfinstitute.org/swf-news/qatari-diar-montenegro-resort-dev/

3. China Investment Corporation (CIC) is a sovereign wealth fund. Since then, CIC's assets have grown to $500 billion at the end of 2011.

China Investment Corp. (CIC), who wrote that China was keen to make equity investments in Western infrastructure, especially in Britain. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx?pageid=438&n=china-eyes-to-buy-european-assets-2011-11-28

Now let’s take a look at ten areas where we expect to see trends making a major impact in 2012!

1. BRIC & beyond rising: Markets, competitors, mindsets and systems
2. Financial and economic uncertainty explodes:  New roles for power brokers?
3. Geopolitical tensions: Politics as a barrier to economic and social stability, versus an enabler
4. Food, water and energy security: Growing challenges
5. Cybercontrols & cyberwars: The new frontlines of authority and crime
6. Technology breakthroughs: Are we serious and will we pay the price?
7. Beyond the Gang of 4:  The fight for controlling the interface
8. The democratization of everything: Facing the tensions of globalization and fragmentation
9. Redefining playing fields:  Fighting to own the new consumer
10. Generations Y and Z moving to the forefront:  Preparing for the digital natives

http://vsocial.livejournal.com/141290.html

10 predictions for Web Trends 2012

#1: social will go away, but that the next generation of social apps will be about doing things more efficiently and saving time
http://znacomstva.blogspot.com/2012/01/10-predictions-for-web-trends-2012.html

Tech M&A trends are positive http://goo.gl/fb/TxDCZ

M&A activity in 2011

For the entire year, 460 companies were bought for $46.4 billion, down 13% from the activity seen in 2010. But the deals were valued much higher as the total amount spent for the purchases was 30% higher than the $35.6 billion spent in 2010. 

The median price paid for a company catapulted 77% to $71 million last year, with the median amount raised down 12% to $17 million before reaching an M&A or buyout exit. The drop in funds reflect the lower start-up costs needed to start a company these days. 

"Acquisitions of companies liquidating their assets were halved in 2011 and companies are benefiting from lower start-up costs by taking capital farther toward a larger acquisition,” said Jessica Canning, global research director for Dow Jones VentureSource, in a release.

The largest acquisitions in 2011 include Plexxikon bought by Daiichi Sankyo for $805 million, Medtronic's $800 million purchase of Ardian, Shire's $750 million acquisition of Advanced BioHealing and Electronic Arts purchase of PopCap Games for $732 million. 

As for the largest transactions in the consumer technology space, PopCap was the largest, followed by Quidsi's sale to Amazon for $545 million, Tiny Prints $406 million sale to Shutterfly, Wal-Mart Stores $300 million purchase of Kosmix, and KAR Auction Services' acquisition of Openlane for $250 million. 

Read more - http://w.po.st/share/entry/redir?publisherKey=vator&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvator.tv

The next big ideas: social TV, crowdsoursing

The next big idea: social TV
http://content.bitsontherun.com/previews/mzSKMwxm-3qUDsq9e

In addition to TV networks including hashtags in the aired programs and streaming content encouraging watchers to comment and share what they are viewing, many companies have started capitalizing on the advertisement revenues available when joining forces with major programs.

GetGlue is a new service that, by April, had already amassed 1 million users

Saad Khan of CMEA Ventures at Vator Splash on his thoughts on the next billion dollar space, his favorite startups and tips on pitching him. Saad starts off by sharing that he invests in the entrepreneur and not necessarily the idea. To quote him, "I invest almost exclusively in people – really smart people! Regardless of what you are doing if you are one of those people then email me saad@cmea.com"

Watch the interview for the types of entrepreneurs Saad has invested in, people who are wired a little differently and have been demonstrating that for a while. 

So what is the next billion dollar space? He shares two areas: Changing of page rank to something else such as "People Rank" or "Like Rank" presents a significant opportunity. How do you establish authority around a person and how does that change Search and Navigation paradigms.

The other space he's excited about is Crowdsourcing. How do you capture people’s marginal hour to disrupt industries.

Read more - http://w.po.st/share/entry/redir?publisherKey=vator&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvator.tv%2Fnews%2F2011-03-09-the-next-billion-dollar-idea-part-2-of-5%3Futm_source%3DBlogGlue_network%26utm_medium%3DBlogGlue_Plugin&title=VatorNews%20-%20The%20next%20billion-dollar%20idea%20-%20Part%202%20of%205&sharer=copypaste

The consensus forecast: the crisis form a double dip

This double-dip crisis was predicted in 2008 by Edward Musinsky.
The study has done in September-December 2010, in three stages:

1. Content analysis of macroeconomic forecasts published by the world's leading research institutions (methods: Scanning sources, analysis of global trends).
2. Drawing the consensus forecast by weighting the citation index of authors forecast
3. Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) the consensus forecast from its own investigation, "the driving forces and trends in the global economy"

Now all the economic experts agree that the second wave of the crisis is inevitable.

THE VENTURE INVESTORS FUTURE RANKING

There is our ranking of venture capital investors with social activity and a vision of the future.


To do this, we analyzed  M&A and IPO exit  over the last five years, and the second part of the rating model was a reference count for a particular investor, and a content analysis of its forward-looking statements on the Internet.
To complement analysis we convened experts opinions about Investors leadership within sector, and his overall authority in the venture capital industry.





The venture prophets 


1. Peter Thiel


2. Michael Moritz



3. Fred Wilson


4. Mark Andreessen


5. Reid Hoffman


6. L. John Doerr



7. Kevin Efrusy


8. Sean Parker



9. Ron Conway


10.  Michael Arrington



11. Paul Graham


12. Andreas von Bechtolsheim   


13. Alan Patricof 



14. Ram Shriram


15. Peter Fenton


16. Aneel Bhusri


17. Timothy Draper 


18. David Cheriton,


19. Vinod Khosla 


20. Max Levchin


21. Howard Hartenbaum,          August Capital  Had big exit in 2008 from social network Bebo, bought by AOL for $850 million. Was a primary investor in Internet phone company Skype, Cashed out in eBay's $3.1 billion acquisition


22.   David Skok, Matrix Partners. Made early investment in data warehousing company Netezza, which went public and was subsequently acquired by IBM for $2.9 billion. Value add investor helped sell storage outfit Diligent to IBM for $200 million in 2008 and was instrumental in building and selling open-source middleware developer JBoss to Red Hat for $350 million in 2006.

23. David Sze, led Greylock's investment in Facebook in early 2006 when it was still a closed network of 10 million co-eds. He has since led the firm's investments in soon-to-be-public LinkedIn (Greylock holds a 16% ownership stake), Pandora (14%) and Digg. His other investments include Revision3 (online video service), Oodle (online classifieds), VUDU (online video service acquired by Wal-Mart Stores), SoftCoin (interactive promotions outfit acquired by You Technology) and New Edge Networks (acquired by EarthLink


24. Hendrik Brandis, Co-founder and managing partner of Earlybird;  past chairman of the EVCA Venture Capital Platform Council. More than 16 years experience as investor and entrepreneur; focus on web-enabled services. Most successful exits: Dianoema (Milan: NOE.MI); element 5 to Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV); dooyoo.de to Le Guide.com S.A.


25. Antoine Papiernik, Sofinnova Partners.  Medronic's $700 million purchase of portfolio company CoreValve, the largest exit in Sofinnova's 37-year history. Papiernik led the sole investment in CoreValve's first round, fended off early acquisition offers and ultimately earned ten times his investment. Led a seed investment in Fovea, which sold to Sanofi Aventis for $500 million in 2006. Also led early stage investments in Addex and Movetis, which had successful public offerings in 2007 and 2009


26. Brad Feld, Foundry Group. Notable companies that Brad has invested in and/or sat on the boards of include Abuzz (acq. NYT), Anyday.com (acq. PALM), Critical Path (CPTH), Cyanea (acq. IBM), Dante Group (acq. WEBM), DataPower (acq. IBM), FeedBurner (acq. by GOOG), Feld Group (acq. by EDS), Gist (acq. by RIM), Harmonix (acq. VIA), NetGenesis (IPO), ServiceMagic (acq. IACI), and ServiceMetrics (acq. EXDS).


27. Roger Ehrenberg, is the founder and Managing Partner of IA Ventures. Prior to forming IA Ventures, Roger was an active angel investor through IA Capital Partners, a seed-stage investment firm focused on digital media and financial technology. From 2004 to 2009, Roger seeded 40 companies, including bit.ly, Buddy Media, Clickable, Invite Media (sold to Google), Magnetic, MyTrade (sold to TD Ameritrade), Solve Media, Stocktwits, TheLadders, TweetDeck (sold to Twitter) and Wallstrip (sold to CBS Interactive). Earlier in his career, Roger served as President and CEO of DB Advisors, LLC, Deutsche Bank’s internal hedge fund trading platform where his 130-person team managed $6 billion in capital across multiple strategies with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. Before DB Advisors, Roger was Global Co-head of Deutsche Bank’s Strategic Equity Transactions Group. In 2000, Roger’s team won Institutional Investor magazine’s “Derivatives Deal of the Year” award.


28.   Bill Gross, chief executive officer of Idealab and UberMedia


29.   Gregory R. Gretsch ,            Sigma Partners EqualLogic, acquired by Dell for $1.4 billion in the biggest exit of the year. Also had a piece of Postini (acquired by Google in 2007 for $625 millions


30. Stefan Glänzer Best Angel Investor of the Year 2010

Euro architect generated new financial idea

Bernard Lietaer exclusive funancial idea

Invited to participate in the movement of "occupy Wall Street," Bernard Lietaer,  well-known economist and architect of euro currency, has made its information contribution to saving the global financial system.


The idea is called ECOs: a proposal that would make it possible for a city or region to fund ecological and/or social programs without burdening the authorities' budgets.

ECO, or  Environmental Conventional Oof


I have checked this information by calling personally Lietaer. And I received from him an even more exclusive information. Moreover, it is a sensation!

Representatives of the Obama administration contacted Lietaer, and asked him to submit his idea through official channels.

About ECO.

Conventional means includes among others paying all labor required at market rates for all the relevant work. 
The purpose of the system is to encourage green and healthy activities, beautify the neighborhood, and generally improve the quality of life in the neighborhood. The starting point was a survey with the question: What would be most desirable to the local resident population. The answer, particularly for the inhabitants of the apartment buildings, was to have access to a few square meters of land for gardening, for growing vegetables and flowers. The city provides access to the land: An old factory site that had been demolished and the land was left untended, plots of land that are waiting for building permits, a back part of a park, even the center of a large traffic roundabout. The land is made available for rent on a month to month basis. 

Local NGO's whose mission is in alignment with that intention would also be invited to get involved.