Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Top promising industries and companies. Only 6 Russian

A hundred of the most promising companies in developing countries are prepared to become transnational and change the existing order in the economy, only 6 Russian, and all of them raw - Rusal, Norilsk Nickel, Severstal, Lukoil, Gazprom and Evraz . But our company's most aggressive: for 2000-2010, 22% of all cross-border mergers, acquisitions accounted for one hundred Russian sixes.


Clean tech is the most promising industrie raised $7.8B in VC funding in 2010.
Stats for the year show smaller amounts per deal, but record-high number of deals.

The siren song to CEO’s who aren’t technical

CEO’s face the “rewrite” problem at least once in their tenure. If they’re an operating exec brought in to replace a founding technical CEO, then it looks like an easy decision – just listen to your engineering VP compare the schedule for a rewrite (short) against the schedule of adapting the old code to the new purpose (long.) In reality this is a fools choice. The engineering team may know the difficulty and problems adapting the old code, but has no idea what difficulties and problems it will face writing a new code base.

A CEO who had lived through a debacle of a rewrite or understood the complexity of the code would know that with the original engineering team no longer there, the odds of making the old mistakes over again are high. Add to that introducing new mistakes that weren’t there the first time, Murphy’s law says that unbridled optimism will likely turn the 1-year rewrite into a multi-year project.

My observation was that the CEO and VP of Engineering were confusing cause and effect. The customers aren’t asking for new code. They are asking for new features and platforms –now. Customers couldn’t care less whether it was delivered via spaghetti code, alien spacecraft or a completely new product. While the code rewrite is going on, competitors who aren’t enamored with architectural purity will be adding features, platforms, customers and market share. The difference between being able to add them now versus a year or more in the future might be the difference between growing revenue and going out of business.

Who wants to work on the old product

Perhaps the most dangerous side-effect of embarking on a code rewrite is that the decision condemns the old code before a viable alternative exists. Who is going to want to work on the old code with all its problems when the VP Engineering and CEO have declared the new code to be the future of the company? The old code is as good as dead the moment management introduces the word “rewrite.” As a consequence, the CEO has no fallback. If the VP Engineering’s schedule ends up taking four years instead of one year, there is no way to make incremental progress on the new features during that time.Dealmakers expect merger and acquisition activity to pick up in the first six months of 2010, with manufacturing, health care and financial services positioned to benefit most in the near term, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

The Association for Corporate Growth (ACG) and Thomson Reuters compile a twice yearly survey of investment bankers, private equity professionals, lawyers and other dealmakers.

Around 82 percent of the 921 people surveyed believed merger activity will increase over the next 6 months. That is up from 56 percent six months ago.

Forty percent of those surveyed believe a quarter to half of the deals in that period would be distressed deals, while about 52 percent thought that less than a quarter of those deals would involve distressed assets.

The biggest expected obstacle to deals in the first half of 2010 is expected to be sellers who won't sell at current multiples, according to 37 percent of survey respondents. About 29 percent of those surveyed were more worried about the credit crunch. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B750820091208



В сотне наиболее перспективных компаний из развивающихся стран, готовых стать транснациональными и изменить сложившийся в экономике порядок, всего 6 российских, причем все они сырьевые – «Русал», «Норникель», «Северсталь», «Лукойл», «Газпром» и «Евраз». Зато наши компании самые агрессивные: за 2000–2010 годы 22% всех трансграничных слияний-поглощений в сотне пришлось на долю российской шестерки.
Давос: после кризиса россияне обеднеют, а китайцы разбогатеют

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