Edward Musinski forecasts strengthening of the Russian ruble and tnen fall

Edward Musinski 's previous forecast of the fall in oil prices and the ruble exchange rate suddently fall was fully justified today.

His forecast for the next year:
since the spring of 2015, the ruble will rise to 45 rubles per dollar. Because a sharp reduction of foreign debt of Russian companies this year - will reduce the demand for the dollar in 2015 to pay debt.
And other reason: the fall in oil prices will stop, due to the fact that cease production of shale oil, the cost of which is $ 60 per barrel.
And the third reason is the strengthening of the ruble - import under the current devaluation scale - it will continue to decline, which means less to buy imported goods, they are too expensive. That is, will the excess of dollar liquidity: in the companies accounts, and especially in the population savings, which has already transferred almost all of their deposits in dollars.

Bottom line: the outflow of capital is inhibited, the inflow of capital begins. Due to a sharp drop in exports and imports, currency flows into the country from the sale of increasingly expensive oil.

But, in second half of the year, Iran will return on the oil market, and oil prices down to $ 40 per barrel. Thus, ruble will weaken in fall 2015: 75 - 80 rubles/$
The ruble may weaken and more than 80 rubles for one dollar, in case of external shocks