Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Chapman predicts returning of Great Depression

There is  the Kondratieff cycle of depressions.
Kondratieff Wave cycle corresponds with the Great Depression of 1930- 1942.
Significantly, a period of 50-60 years from 1949 encompasses the past decade, which culminated in the financial panic of 2008.
But given the possible influence of the longer 72-year and 90-year cycles, this particular Kondratieff Wave may not yet have seen its nadir. At the end of the other long waves the culmination of debt build-up was largely cleansed via bankruptcy and defaults. Today this process is still being worked out.

 The well-known Kitchin cycle of 3-5 years is what plays as a series of stock market lows about every four years. From the Great Depression low of 1932, stock market lows were seen in 1938, 1942, 1946, 1949, 1953, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2005 (very shallow) and 2009. The next Kitchin cycle low is due anywhere from 2012 to 2014.
More about forecast expert prognosis http://hodorkovski.blogspot.com/2011/02/truth-about-economic-cycles-kondratieff.html

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